assassination market bear raid betfair betting exchange calibrated probability assessment cass sunstein cold fusion commodity futures trading commission digital object identifier foresight exchange fuse tv futarchy general electric google hewlett-packard hollywood stock exchange hubdub institute for the future intrade iowa electronic markets james surowiecki john brunner keynesian beauty contest london stock exchange market manipulation new york stock exchange newsfutures no-action letter normal distribution northwestern university policy analysis market popular science predictions exchange project xanadu public opinion quarterly robin hanson speculation terrorism the pentagon the shockwave rider the wisdom of crowds the simexchange tradesports university of iowa